Carolina QuotesAll these cycles look set to peak in the years around 2020.
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
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- Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade (Feb 3, 2010)
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- 2010
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“All these cycles look set to peak in the years around 2020.” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-125341A8B2. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/125341a8b2
More from Peter Turchin
GDP per capita shows no break in the 1970s. It slowed down... around the financial crisis of 2007–2008...
Let me go back to 2010 when Nature, the journal... asked a number of scientists to make some forecasts for the next decade... (2010-2020) and that's when I published the forecast that.., the growing political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade. ...10 years later ...together with my coauthor, Andrey Korotayev, we have revisited this forecast to see whether it had anything to do with reality, and... this is one of the graphs... We looked at several measures of instability, one was anti-government demonstrations. A very similar picture shows up when you look at violent riots. And so we submitted this paper in early 2020 saying that this forecast was actually right... [A]s the paper was [under] review, the summer of 2020, the riots following the death of George Floyd have exploded and... in January of 2021 we had the shocking event... known as the Storming of the Capitol.
Many of the historical "Golden Ages" were... golden... only for the elites, whose high levels of consumption were based on low real wages and falling consumption levels of the great majority...