Carolina Quotes[W]e need to translate the general theory into a specific computational model tailored to the focal state. Over the past four decades this has been accomplished for... historical case-studies, ranging from Ancient empires to Early Modern states and nineteenth century’s revolutions and civil wars.
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
Introduction. Ref: JA Goldstone. Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (1991) Ref: Turchin P. Historical dynamics: why states rise and fall (2003) Ref: Turchin P. "Dynamics of Political Instability in the United States, 1780–2010" Journal of Peace Research (2012) 4:577–91 Ref: Turchin P. Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (2016) Ref: P. Turchin, S. Nefedov Secular Cycles (2009) Ref: A. Korotayev, D. Khaltourina, Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa (2006) Ref: A Korotayev, J Zinkina, S Kobzeva, J Bozhevolnov, D Khaltourina, A Malkov, et al. "A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia" Cliodynamics (2011) 2:276–303
- work
- The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade (Aug 17, 2020)
- year
- 1780
Cite this record
“[W]e need to translate the general theory into a specific co…” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-29EC6362BA. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/29ec6362ba
More from Peter Turchin
[W]hen a state... has stagnating or declining real wages... a growing gap between the rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, declining public trust, and exploding public debt... Historically such developments have served as leading indicators of political instability. In the United States all of these... started to take an ominous turn in the 1970s. The data pointed to... around 2020... a spike in political instability. And here we are.
[U]ntil the fundamental SD drivers for instability are reversed, there will be other triggering events... social turbulence may continue for years ahead.
Let's look at real wages... wages adjusted for inflation. ...In the late 1970s there was a definite phase transition. Up to that point, for the previous two generations, the wages for both unskilled and manufacturing workers had been growing quite rapidly and almost linearly... [W]ages for manufacturing workers increased... fourfold... a quite remarkable achievement... [I]t was unprecedented in human history to see such a long-term sustained increase in general well-being. Then... the wages stagnated, or even declined. So what was the reason?