Carolina QuotesSDT is a general theory that guides our understanding of political violence dynamics and social breakdown in all large-scale state-level societies.
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
Introduction
- work
- The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade (Aug 17, 2020)
- year
- 2010
Cite this record
“SDT is a general theory that guides our understanding of pol…” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-61E11ECA5B. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/61e11eca5b
More from Peter Turchin
[T]his is structural-demographic theory, and it posits several forces that drive social instability and political violence. ...I'll focus on two main ones. ...First ...mass mobilization potential ...based on popular immiseration resulting from the decreased living standards for the majority of the population... This is a fairly obvious effect of growing inequality... Since the days of Malthus this... force has been much in discussion.
Cliodynamics... uses the methods of data science, treating the historical record... as Big Data. It employs mathematical models to trace the intricate web of interactions...
We have analyzed CrisiDB because there's plenty of data on weather proxies. ...Weather, climate worsening seems to serve often as a trigger for crisis. But the key question is whether the societies have resilience... When populations are not immiserated and elites are not overproduced the social stability and resilience is very high, and societies adjust reasonably well to climate shocks. It's really when drivers for instability have been working for a while, that's when the climate can often serve as the trigger.