Carolina QuotesSDT can be... an explicit computational model capable of forecasting future... social unrest and political violence in specific social systems.
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
Introduction
- work
- The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade (Aug 17, 2020)
- year
- 2010
Cite this record
“SDT can be... an explicit computational model capable of for…” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-6BBC410F3C. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/6bbc410f3c
More from Peter Turchin
[W]e actually looked at outcomes of crises, measuring them by a collapse. I don't like the word "collapse" because who knows what collapse means. So... we broke it up into various dimensions, and then we can look at more than 100 cases in CrisisDB, and look at the distribution of the severity (where we basically sum of the possible bad things that can happen in societies). Most of the time the crises lead to pretty dire consequences, but there is about 10-15% of cases where the elites manage to pull together, adopt the right set of reforms, and sail the ship of the state through the turbulent waters without major bloodshed.
So far so good. But the problem is, as in many dynamical systems, there are some delayed effects of such dynamics. ...Here are some numbers on the relative distribution of wealth in the American population. You have good data from 1983 to 2019... when we look at the percentage of households with [inflation adjusted in 1995 US dollars] net worth exceeding... Millionaires, roughly 10% of the population (7% now) increased from 3% to 7% but then growth in... classes such as decamillionaires was even more remarkable... more than fivefold, sixfold increase in the proportion of households that have 10 million dollars wealth, or more.
So this is how elite overproduction drives intraelite competition, intraelite conflicts, rise of the counter-elites and then sociopolitical instability.