In the United States, we have stagnating or declining real wages, a growing gap between rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, and exploding public debt. These... social indicators are... related... dynamically. They... experienced turning points during the 1970s. Historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of looming political instability. ...50-year instability spikes occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970, so another could be due around 2020.
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
No citation is recorded for this quotation.
- work
- Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade (Feb 3, 2010)
- year
- 2010
no citation recorded
Cite this record
“In the United States, we have stagnating or declining real w…” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-8B40120C09. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/8b40120c09
More from Peter Turchin
[W]hile declining living standards are often a contributing factor to... instability, reversing this trend does not end instability until elite overproduction is... reversed...
Structural-demographic theory was proposed 30 years ago. Although it was successively refined by other theorists... the theoretical core, and especially the emphasis on intra-elite competition and conflict as the most important driver of socio-political instability and state breakdown, remained constant. Over the past three decades, the theory was empirically tested by a growing number of researchers. Currently, there are detailed investigations of at least twenty crises... to test the predictions of the theory... [T]here are several dozen other less detailed examples. The... verdict is that.. predictions are well supported by data. ...[R]ival theories are not supported.
GDP per capita shows no break in the 1970s. It slowed down... around the financial crisis of 2007–2008...