Carolina QuotesThe focus [is] on only these four structural components... [E]ach component has a number of attributes that change dynamically in response to... [the] other... variables.
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
Introduction. Ref: Turchin P. "Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability" Cliodynamics (2013) 4:241–80. Ref: Turchin P. Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (2016)
- work
- The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade (Aug 17, 2020)
- year
- 2010
Cite this record
“The focus [is] on only these four structural components... […” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-AF602112D9. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/af602112d9
More from Peter Turchin
[G]rowing socio-political instability results from multiple interacting factors: economic, political, and cultural.
Specific triggers... are difficult, perhaps... impossible to predict. ...[S]tructural pressures build up slowly and more predictably, and are amenable to analysis and forecasting.
Let me go back to 2010 when Nature, the journal... asked a number of scientists to make some forecasts for the next decade... (2010-2020) and that's when I published the forecast that.., the growing political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade. ...10 years later ...together with my coauthor, Andrey Korotayev, we have revisited this forecast to see whether it had anything to do with reality, and... this is one of the graphs... We looked at several measures of instability, one was anti-government demonstrations. A very similar picture shows up when you look at violent riots. And so we submitted this paper in early 2020 saying that this forecast was actually right... [A]s the paper was [under] review, the summer of 2020, the riots following the death of George Floyd have exploded and... in January of 2021 we had the shocking event... known as the Storming of the Capitol.