Carolina QuotesUsing these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected... the Political Stress Indicator, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability.
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
Abstract
- work
- The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade (Aug 17, 2020)
- year
- 2010
Cite this record
“Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and proje…” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-B43A8F5944. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/b43a8f5944
More from Peter Turchin
[T]he "crude" Malthusian explanation, which connects popular immiseration to social breakdown, fails to account both for the start and end of the "Time of Troubles."
Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and several major Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions.
My colleague Walter Scheidel has expressed a pessimistic view in his book The Great Leveler... where he says the death is the great leveler so... a major violent shock is needed to reverse the economic inequality. I... look at this a bit more optimistically. Essentially entering into the crisis is relatively stereotypical, that's what our CrisisDB investigations show... [I]t's really conflict that plays a key role, together with mass organization. But the exit is usually contingent, and in fact there could be both good and bad outcomes, as indicated in this graph. Sometimes the decline is mild and followed by rapid recovery, but you... can also have complete collapse.