Carolina QuotesThe next decade is likely to be a period of growing instability... which could undermine... scientific progress...
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
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- Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade (Feb 3, 2010)
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- 2010
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“The next decade is likely to be a period of growing instabil…” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-DFD6EC9605. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/dfd6ec9605
More from Peter Turchin
This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010–2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe...
Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and several major Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions.
Let me go back to 2010 when Nature, the journal... asked a number of scientists to make some forecasts for the next decade... (2010-2020) and that's when I published the forecast that.., the growing political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade. ...10 years later ...together with my coauthor, Andrey Korotayev, we have revisited this forecast to see whether it had anything to do with reality, and... this is one of the graphs... We looked at several measures of instability, one was anti-government demonstrations. A very similar picture shows up when you look at violent riots. And so we submitted this paper in early 2020 saying that this forecast was actually right... [A]s the paper was [under] review, the summer of 2020, the riots following the death of George Floyd have exploded and... in January of 2021 we had the shocking event... known as the Storming of the Capitol.