Carolina QuotesHow resilient are our societies to internal and external shocks?
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
Introduction
- work
- The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade (Aug 17, 2020)
- year
- 2010
Cite this record
“How resilient are our societies to internal and external sho…” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-2AD25100C6. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/2ad25100c6
More from Peter Turchin
We have analyzed CrisiDB because there's plenty of data on weather proxies. ...Weather, climate worsening seems to serve often as a trigger for crisis. But the key question is whether the societies have resilience... When populations are not immiserated and elites are not overproduced the social stability and resilience is very high, and societies adjust reasonably well to climate shocks. It's really when drivers for instability have been working for a while, that's when the climate can often serve as the trigger.
[T]he theory has been applied to two contemporary societies. The first... is a structural-demographic model for the... USA... the basis for the 2010 prediction. The details... were published [by] Turchin and later expanded into a book-length treatment.
To conclude, the structural causes of Ages of Discord... I have shown the example using the United States, but... they are quite generic. ...[T]hey show up... in more than 100... past crises. ...[W]e are now in the United States ...clearly in crisis. ...We are at the cusp. ...In fact, collective actions can result in positive... or negative outcomes. What will happen we will see.