Carolina Quotes[T]he theory has been applied to two contemporary societies. The first... is a structural-demographic model for the... USA... the basis for the 2010 prediction. The details... were published [by] Turchin and later expanded into a book-length treatment.
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
Introduction. Ref: P Turchin, "Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability" Cliodynamics (2013) 4:241–80 Ref: P. Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (2016)
- work
- The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade (Aug 17, 2020)
- year
- 2010
Cite this record
“[T]he theory has been applied to two contemporary societies.…” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-A0CC7CAE94. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/a0cc7cae94
More from Peter Turchin
SDT is a general theory that guides our understanding of political violence dynamics and social breakdown in all large-scale state-level societies.
In my book, Ages of Discord I talk about the Progressive Period... [the] 1920s especially. Remember... the original Red Scare was in the 1920s. So when we look at the existence of the Soviet Union, established in 1920 and collapsed in 1989, this is the period when... I grew up, by the way, in the Soviet Union, and I remember how the newspapers like Pravda were talking about the horrors of capitalism... There are multiple lines of evidence that show that the influence from the Soviet Union... By the way, also from Nazi Germany during the 1930s. Those were, in fact, important influences on the Roosevelt administration in... designing an equitable system. ...When the Soviet Union ... collapsed, it was misinterpreted as the triumph of neoliberal economics... and here we are essentially. ...This is an important factor. So the failure by the elites. It could be both due to internal challenges... and by the way, in the 1920s there were challenges... even earlier from [the] 1890s... from the Populist movement in the United States, and the Socialist movement in the United States. ...So those were internal. There were also external influences from competitors such as the Soviet Union.
[E]ssentially the effect of increasing the number of wealth holders is translated into increased competition for political positions.