Carolina QuotesHistorical data indicate that periods of enhanced instability and internal warfare usually extend for many years, with the median length... 10–15 years range.
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
Postscript
- work
- The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade (Aug 17, 2020)
- year
- 2010
Cite this record
“Historical data indicate that periods of enhanced instabilit…” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-2B1D197019. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/2b1d197019
More from Peter Turchin
[T]here are some reasons to doubt that growing inequality might be a direct mechanism... of instability, because humans are very bad at perceiving inequality. ...[A] number of studies ...show that people, when... asked to estimate the degree of income or wealth inequality... their opinions essentially have nothing to do with what is actually... measured by economists.
SDT can be... an explicit computational model capable of forecasting future... social unrest and political violence in specific social systems.
We have analyzed CrisiDB because there's plenty of data on weather proxies. ...Weather, climate worsening seems to serve often as a trigger for crisis. But the key question is whether the societies have resilience... When populations are not immiserated and elites are not overproduced the social stability and resilience is very high, and societies adjust reasonably well to climate shocks. It's really when drivers for instability have been working for a while, that's when the climate can often serve as the trigger.