Carolina QuotesIt became clear... through quantitative historical analysis that [throughout time] complex societies everywhere are affected by recurrent and, to a... degree, predictable waves of political instability, brought about by the same basic set of forces...
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
Preface
- work
- End Times (2023)
- year
- 2023
Cite this record
“It became clear... through quantitative historical analysis …” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-5A063D2275. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/5a063d2275
More from Peter Turchin
...[A]s a result ...the new elites, let's call them the elite aspirants... their numbers... begin to be so large that there is not enough power positions in... politics or in economics [e.g., corporations]... That's fixed, and as the numbers of elite aspirants vying for these positions increase, then first... the result... is intraelite competition, and secondly... the numbers of frustrated elite aspirants who are denied access to these positions begins to explode.
[T]his is structural-demographic theory, and it posits several forces that drive social instability and political violence. ...I'll focus on two main ones. ...First ...mass mobilization potential ...based on popular immiseration resulting from the decreased living standards for the majority of the population... This is a fairly obvious effect of growing inequality... Since the days of Malthus this... force has been much in discussion.
The focus [is] on only these four structural components... [E]ach component has a number of attributes that change dynamically in response to... [the] other... variables.