[T]he second condition... is absolutely much more predictive of immediate troubles to come, and that's intraelite competition which results... when elite numbers increase relative to the general population. As a result... we have too many elite aspirants vying for a limited number of positions... elite overproduction causes... intraelite competition, eventually conflict, and that... in our analysis of about 100... cases of past societies sliding into crisis and then out... That turns out to be the most universal and most important force.
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
6:44
- work
- Human environment across time (2023)
- year
- 2023
Cite this record
“[T]he second condition... is absolutely much more predictive…” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-63075919C3. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/63075919c3
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It became clear... through quantitative historical analysis that [throughout time] complex societies everywhere are affected by recurrent and, to a... degree, predictable waves of political instability, brought about by the same basic set of forces...