Carolina QuotesWe are also entering a dip in the so-called Kondratiev wave... This could mean that future recessions will be severe.
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
No citation is recorded for this quotation.
- work
- Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade (Feb 3, 2010)
- year
- 2010
no citation recorded
Cite this record
“We are also entering a dip in the so-called Kondratiev wave.…” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-B11D7B5DF5. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/b11d7b5df5
More from Peter Turchin
Immiseration is important, but... societies can... be pretty stable with quite a lot of immiseration. As long as the elites are united and the state is strong, the state can suppress all those peasant rebellions... All "successful" revolutions and civil wars were the result of the intraelite conflicts. Even today, if you look at Donald Trump, who is sort of the main "revolutionary" so to speak, ...he is not particularly immiserated himself, but he's channeling... the tens of millions of immiserated Americans.
Making scientific predictions about the events that happened, but are not known to the authors of the theory, is a valid scientific approach in historical sciences, such as geology, astrophysics, evolutionary biology, and cliodynamics (history as science). It is sometimes referred to as "retrodiction". ...[T]he primary way of testing theories in historical dynamics is retrodiction. But when mulitple successful tests using retrodiction (prediction about the past) are complemented with a few cases of prediction about the future, our degree of confidence in the theory is... enhanced.
Many of the historical "Golden Ages" were... golden... only for the elites, whose high levels of consumption were based on low real wages and falling consumption levels of the great majority...