Carolina QuotesThe SDT is not merely a theory for understanding why internal violence outbreaks develop and spike. By providing... understanding of the deep structural causes of socio-political instability and societal breakdown, SDT... gives us tools for adopting... reforms and policy interventions that can reverse these drivers of instability.
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
Discussion Ref: Turchin P, Witoszek N, Thurner S, Garcia D, Griffin R, Hoyer D, et al. "A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience" Cliodynamics (2018) 9:124–39
- work
- The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade (Aug 17, 2020)
- year
- 2010
Cite this record
“The SDT is not merely a theory for understanding why interna…” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-F8AFDFBD87. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/f8afdfbd87
More from Peter Turchin
Structural-demographic theory was proposed 30 years ago. Although it was successively refined by other theorists... the theoretical core, and especially the emphasis on intra-elite competition and conflict as the most important driver of socio-political instability and state breakdown, remained constant. Over the past three decades, the theory was empirically tested by a growing number of researchers. Currently, there are detailed investigations of at least twenty crises... to test the predictions of the theory... [T]here are several dozen other less detailed examples. The... verdict is that.. predictions are well supported by data. ...[R]ival theories are not supported.
The focus [is] on only these four structural components... [E]ach component has a number of attributes that change dynamically in response to... [the] other... variables.
Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and several major Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions.