Carolina Quotes[T]he... forecast: “The next decade is likely to be a period of growing instability in the United States and western Europe” ...was not simply a projection of the current trend in social instability into the future. ...[T]he basis for this forecast was a quantitative model that took as inputs the major SD drivers for instability (immiseration, intraelite competition, and state (in)capacity) and translated them into the Political Stress Indicator (PSI)... strongly correlated with socio-political instability. The rising curve of the... PSI... suggests a growing future socio-political instability.
Peter Turchin Connected to the Carolinas
Source
Introduction. Ref: JA Goldstone. Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (1991) Ref: Turchin P. "Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability" Cliodynamics (2013) 4:241–80.
- work
- The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade (Aug 17, 2020)
- year
- 1991
Cite this record
“[T]he... forecast: “The next decade is likely to be a period…” Peter Turchin. Carolina Quotes, record CQ-50010C5E54. https://carolinaquotes.com/quote/50010c5e54
More from Peter Turchin
SDT can be... an explicit computational model capable of forecasting future... social unrest and political violence in specific social systems.
All these cycles look set to peak in the years around 2020.
[T]he second condition... is absolutely much more predictive of immediate troubles to come, and that's intraelite competition which results... when elite numbers increase relative to the general population. As a result... we have too many elite aspirants vying for a limited number of positions... elite overproduction causes... intraelite competition, eventually conflict, and that... in our analysis of about 100... cases of past societies sliding into crisis and then out... That turns out to be the most universal and most important force.